Democrat Adviser: Two Reasons Biden Faces ‘Tougher’ Electoral College Path to 270

President Joe Biden faces a much “tougher” path than his opponent to obtain the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidential election, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times.

Seven states, (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina) will decide the president, Sosnik analyzed. If former President Donald Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining to 270 electoral votes becomes narrow, he said.

Trump currently leads Biden in five of six key swing states, excluding North Carolina, an Echelon Insights poll found last week. Trump also leads in two of the three states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) to narrow Biden’s reelection hopes, the poll showed:

  • Arizona: Trump +6
  • Georgia: Trump +10
  • Michigan: Trump +6
  • Nevada: Trump +7
  • Pennsylvania: Trump +4
  • Wisconsin: Biden +1

Sosnik depicted several reasons why Biden faces a tougher path to reelection than Trump, Axios reported the two main points Monday:

  1. Biden can no longer count on carrying Michigan, which voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the past three election cycles.
  2. Biden’s 2020 victories in the Sunbelt battleground states — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — were due to his overwhelming support from young and non-white voters. Polling shows Biden has suffered a significant erosion with these voters during his presidency.

“Mr. Biden’s declining popularity in the Sun Belt states is the main reason Mr. Trump has an edge right now. He is especially struggling with young and nonwhite voters there,” Sosnik’s wrote in the Times:

According to 2020 exit polls, Mr. Biden won 65 percent of Latino voters, who comprised roughly a fifth of voters in Arizona and Nevada. And Mr. Biden won 87 percent of Black voters, who made up 29 percent of the Georgia vote and 23 percent of the North Carolina vote. He also won 60 percent of voters aged 18 to 29. Now look at this year: A New York Times/Siena College poll released last weekend showed support for Mr. Biden had dropped 18 points with Black voters, 15 points with Latinos and 14 points with younger voters nationally.
Nevertheless, the key to Mr. Biden’s victory is to perform well in the three industrial states. If Mr. Trump is able to win one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes becomes even narrower.
If Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump remain ahead in the states where they are currently running strongest, the outcome of the election could come down to who wins Michigan and the two Sun Belt states where abortion will very likely be on the ballot, Arizona and Nevada.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.

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