There’s a rather major re-alignment in American politics going on right now. Democrats have traditionally owned many of the various American minority groups since the early ’60s. But things are changing. One major demographic group, one that is likely the minority group, is changing its political alignment. This re-alignment is one of the reasons Donald Trump won his historic non-consecutive second term, and there are good reasons for their switching to the right.
That group would be American Hispanics.
Nowhere is this upheaval more evident than in emerging House battlegrounds. Among the heavily Hispanic areas that rapidly shifted to the right in their presidential votes this year: A district that Republicans drew to combine two Democratic seats together in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley. A district in northern New Jersey that Joe Biden carried by 19 points in 2020. A Central Valley district that twice rejected Trump by double-digit margins
“There’s definitely a realignment going on in American politics, and these voters are increasingly winnable,” said Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House GOP super PAC. “We would be foolish not to compete for them.”
Donald Trump would seem to have anticipated this shift. A large part of this realignment, of course, is that Hispanics, by and large, tend to be conservative on social issues, including but not limited to abortion. And, like a majority of Americans, they aren’t sanguine about the idea of boys sharing their daughters’ sports teams, locker rooms, and showers.
That’s a part of the Democrats’ messaging that has cost them dearly in this cycle.
Democrats are warning that they need to overhaul their strategy in those districts. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who holds the South Texas district drawn to be safely Democratic, lamented the party’s “very progressive messaging” that turned off voters in his “relatively conservative community.” One crucial example: “We overplayed the abortion card and when you’re doing that in an 80 percent Catholic community it’s not very effective.”
But there’s more to it than just social issues.
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Loathe as I am to assign characteristics to an ethnic group, some broad trends among Hispanics must be considered. Hispanics are generally working-class people; many are small business owners, and many more work in the gig economy — like younger voters, who are also showing a trend toward the right.
The larger issue is that Hispanic voters, like most American voters, don’t care for finger-wagging slobs telling them what to do. The whining about climate change and “transgender rights” doesn’t ring many bells in the Hispanic community or, indeed, any traditional American community, especially not when the price of everything from eggs to gasoline has shot upward over the last four years. The constant lecturing about “tolerance,” which Democrats imply means “celebration” of any diversity except diversity of opinion, likewise doesn’t fly well.
So, yes, the Hispanic community is shifting right. At least, in this election cycle. If this trend has any legs, though, it has the potential to reshape American politics for a generation. Hispanics are a growing ethnic group in the population, and their voices will carry more weight going forward.
Republicans are right to pay attention to them.
