Former President Donald Trump boasts an eight-point lead against Joe Biden in Michigan, according to polling results released on Friday by CNN/ SSRS. Among registered voters, Trump received 50 percent support, to Biden’s 42 percent.
This lead matches his highest-ever advantage in the critical swing state, which Trump won in his 2016 election, becoming the first Republican presidential nominee to do so in 28 years. In 2020, the pendulum swung again, and Michigan awarded its electoral votes to Joe Biden.
In Pennsylvania, another state that flipped from red to blue in the 2020 presidential election, the candidates are in a dead heat—each sits at 46 percent.
While the majority of voters in both battleground states indicated that they were not satisfied with the candidates they had to choose from, with only 47 percent in Pennsylvania, and 46 percent in Michigan registering approval, a greater number said that they had made up their minds about who they would be voting for. About a quarter of voters in each state said that they could be swayed between now and November, which is notably enough voters to impact election outcomes.
Trump’s advantage in Michigan can be attributed to a 10-point lead among self-proclaimed independents and a 16-point lead among voters under age 35 in Michigan. Additionally, Biden registered only 55 percent support from “voters of color” in the state, while Trump had 34 percent support from the demographic. In both states, Biden retains approximately 90 percent of his self-identified 2020 supporters, whereas Trump retains a slightly higher proportion of his own 2020 voters.
A four-way model, including the minor party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornel West alongside Trump and Biden, shows significant backing for Kennedy in both states. In Pennsylvania, 40 percent support Trump, 38 percent favor Biden, 16 percent back Kennedy, and 4 percent are for West. In Michigan, the breakdown is 40 percent for Trump, 34 percent for Biden, 18 percent for Kennedy, and 4 percent for West. Among those supporting candidates other than Biden or Trump, less than one-fifth express strong enthusiasm for their choice, with approximately half in each state indicating that they primarily support their candidate because they are dissatisfied with the other options available.
A majority of voters in both states believe that a second term for Trump would result in significant changes for the United States, whereas only about a quarter feel the same way about a second term for Biden. Interestingly, Biden’s supporters are less inclined than Trump’s supporters to anticipate significant changes in a potential second term for Biden, while both camps foresee substantial shifts under a second Trump presidency. Moreover, in both states, more people view the potential changes brought by Trump positively rather than negatively.
Roughly one in six voters in both states is a so-called “double-hater,” holding negative views of both Biden and Trump. Approximately two-thirds of respondents in each state express dissatisfaction with Biden’s sharpness and stamina, 69 percent in Michigan and 64 percent in Pennsylvania, while majorities of 61 percent in both states believe that Trump’s temperament is not suitable for a president.
About half of the voters polled in Pennsylvania and 44 percent in Michigan think that if the charges against Trump for trying to allegedly overturn the 2020 election are true, he shouldn’t be president. This view is stronger than the roughly 4 in 10 voters in each state who do not think these charges affect his ability to serve. The remaining voters are unsure about whether these charges affect his suitability for the job.
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Notably, both candidates are bidding for the support of major Michigan hubs of influence including blue-collar and auto industry workers, and both are courting the Teamsters Union for endorsement. Meanwhile, Biden secured the United Automobile Workers (UAW) endorsement but has yet to shore up the heavy Arab-American demographics in the state that are withholding support and demanding a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The surveys took place from March 13 to March 18, using both telephone and online methods. In Michigan, the sample involved 1,097 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, while in Pennsylvania, the sample included 1,132 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.
