On the face of it, former President Donald Trump and Joe Biden won their primaries easily.
Trump beat Nikki Haley by 42 points, 68.1 percent to 26.5 as of Wednesday morning, and that’s likely with some Democrats crossing over to play games and vote for Haley. So the spread with just Republicans would probably have been higher even for Trump.
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) February 28, 2024
But the interesting aspect in Michigan was the protest vote against Joe Biden from the left. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D0MI) had called on people to vote “uncommitted” to show Biden that they were unhappy with his position on the Israel-Hamas war.
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) February 28, 2024
Biden lost over 101,000 people to “uncommitted,” with the votes for Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) making it more than 140,000 “not Biden.”
It was even worse in Dearborn, where Biden lost the city.
Here was CNN’s John King noting the first numbers coming in and saying, “So that’s a wow.”
CNN reports the first numbers out of Dearborn, Michigan, home to the largest population of Arab Americans in the state.
— The Recount (@therecount) February 28, 2024
Biden: 23%
Uncommitted: 75% pic.twitter.com/kJWRGsqci9
Now those were incomplete numbers but the Dearborn numbers by the end of the night were 6290 “uncommitted” to 4517 Biden, 56.22 percent to 40.37 percent.
In Dearborn, turnout wasn’t especially impressive & with nearly all precincts reporting (as of 11:30pm), MORE city residents voted in the GOP primary than voted in that much-hyped, effectively pro-Hamas “uncommitted” revolt against Biden on the Dem side: pic.twitter.com/DcW1mxIesz
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) February 28, 2024
More voted in the GOP primary than for the “uncommitted” protest against Biden in Dearborn, which is an intriguing number, although it may have been pumped up by the crossovers.
It should also be noted that the turnout for Democrats was lower than for Republicans, with 1,110,373 voting in the Republican primary and 762,187. That might be affected by both crossover and low enthusiasm for Biden.
Another big number is the raw numbers for Trump and Biden. Trump got 756,134 and Biden got 617,925. as of this morning at 8 a.m. That’s 139,000 more for Trump in Michigan. Trump’s number was almost the same as all the Democratic votes combined.
This all spells big trouble for Joe Biden in the general election. While he might get the crossovers who voted for Haley back, if a substantial number of the 140,000+ people who wouldn’t vote for him in the primary stay away as they might in the general election, that’s the game right there.
The primary seems to be in line with the RCP average which has Trump up by 5.1 points now. All the current polls in Michigan have Trump up. If the numbers can hold, and Trump takes Michigan that also spells bad news for Biden nationwide as well. Trump is up right now in all the swing states in the polls.
