Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are tied nationally in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, a recent New York Times/Siena College survey found.
The survey asked respondents who they would choose if the presidential election were held today: Biden, Trump, or another candidate.
Across the board, Trump and Biden are tied, as 43 percent chose Biden, and 43 percent chose the former president, who is dominating the Republican primary race. Four percent chose “another candidate,” and six percent said they would not vote. Another four percent indicated that they did not know what they would do or refused to answer.
🇺🇲 2024 Presidential General Election
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 1, 2023
(R) Trump: 43%
(D) Biden: 43%
⦿ NYT/Siena College (A+) | 1,329 RV
⦿ July 23-27 | D29/R27/I34 | ±3.67%https://t.co/p1UiwcFsjR pic.twitter.com/QeYtDcH0wz
The survey shows Trump leading among white voters by ten points, while Biden leads among black voters by a 59-point margin. However, just three points separate the two among Hispanics, giving Biden a slight edge.
Trump leads Biden among Catholics and Protestants as well as rural voters — the latter by a 21-point margin. Trump also edges out Biden among those who make under $100,000 per year, while Biden leads among those who make over $100,000.
Consistent with other surveys, Trump appears to have more support among his base, with 88 percent support from Republicans compared to Biden’s 83 percent support among Democrats. This particular survey also shows Biden edging out Trump among independents by five points, unlike other surveys which show Trump leading in this category by double-digits.
Notably, the overall survey, which shows the two tied, slightly out-sampled Democrats, who made up 29 percent of the sample size compared to 27 percent of Republicans. Another 34 percent of respondents identify as independents.
The New York Times noted that:
[W]arning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.
The Times continued:
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.
The survey was taken July 23-27, 2023, among 1,329 registered voters and has a +/- 3.67 percent margin of error.
The seeming caution from the survey comes as other establishment news outlets warn about the reality that Trump could very well make it to the White House for a second term.
As Breitbart News detailed:
A CNN piece authored by Harry Enten warns the possibility of Trump winning the general election and returning to the White House is “very real,” despite the narrative of critics who surmise that the radical left wants Trump to be the nominee – a narrative wholly rejected by many conservatives, particularly in light of the Biden Department of Justice (DOJ) relentlessly targeting the former president and GOP frontrunner.
Despite the continued targeting of trump, CNN observes that “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.” It cites Trump’s domination in the polls, as he is garnering majority support in the primary in national and state-level polls.
The CNN piece attempts to end on a high note for Democrats, concluding that general election polling — much of which has shown Trump performing very well against Biden — is “not predictive at this point.”
“Things can most certainly change,” the CNN piece concludes, warning that Trump returning to the White House stands as a “very real possibility.”
Trump has also weighed heavily into the Biden corruption narrative that the establishment media tends to ignore, telling Breitbart News last week that Biden is the “most corrupt president we’ve ever had.”
“I took the name off Crooked [Hillary Clinton]. We call her Beautiful Hillary now because, you know, that one’s over with, and the word Crooked, I think, was very pertinent,” Trump said during an interview with Breitbart News Washington Bureau Chief Matthew Boyle. “It was a very good word for Biden. He’s Crooked. He’s the most corrupt president we’ve ever had, and he’s also the worst president we’ve ever had.”
