Let’s be honest. Regardless of which presidential candidate floats your boat, to deny that a majority of likely voters continue to dread the results of the 2024 presidential election is to deny the results of months of polls to the contrary. That is, assuming Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the nominees.
Moreover, polling has been consistent.
In an April poll conducted for NBC News, 80 percent of respondents said they didn’t want Trump to run in 2024, while half of those polled didn’t want Biden to run, with a majority citing the president’s age. Biden will be 82 years old on Inauguration Day 2025; Trump will be 78.
A June Economist/YouGov poll found 59 percent of voters don’t want Biden to seek reelection, with only 26 percent favoring a run for a second term. Trump got similar results in the same poll, with 56 percent of likely voters against a third Trump run, compared to 33 percent in favor.
Another June poll, conducted by SSRS Research, found that 33 percent of likely voters favored Trump and 32 percent favored Biden, but 36 percent viewed neither positively. Specifically among registered voters, 31 percent preferred neither candidate.
And a recent July poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports found that if the 2024 presidential election is a 2020 Trump-Biden redux, more than eight out of 10 voters believe the country is “doomed.”
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the statement, “Joe Biden must be re-elected president next year, or the United States is doomed,” including 25% who Strongly Agree. Fifty-three percent (53%) disagree, including 43% who Strongly Disagree. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Forty-two percent (42%) agree with the statement, “Donald Trump must be re-elected president next year or the United States is doomed,” including 26% who Strongly Agree. Fifty-three percent (53%) disagree, including 44% who Strongly Disagree.
Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen found that opinions are largely divided along party lines.
Two-thirds (67%) of Democrats at least somewhat agree that America is doomed if Biden is not reelected in 2024, while 61% of Republicans at least somewhat agree that the country is doomed if Trump doesn’t win next year.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% at least somewhat agree the U.S. is doomed if Trump doesn’t win, compared to 25% who feel the same about Biden.
Considering the amount of baggage attached to both Biden and Trump — whether self-attached or attached by others — it continues to become increasingly clear that neither side gives a damn about the baggage of their respective candidate, while very much giving a damn about the baggage of the other guy.
The Critical Factor Neither Side Wants to Talk About
Following the 2022 midterm shift to the Republican Party, according to Gallup, 45 percent of voters identified as or leaned Republican, 44 percent identified as or leaned Democrat, while the largest percentage of likely voters still identified as independent.
Again, the largest percentage of likely voters still identified as independent.
So what assumptions can be made by the objective among us?
Clearly, if both the Democrats and the Republicans hold their respective lines in 2024, the candidate that captures the largest percentage of independent voters will likely win the election. And while preaching to one’s own choir — by preaching precisely what one’s own choir wants to hear — will hold the attention of that choir, the same sermon preached over and over will hardly attract new members to the choir.
The ‘Not’ Vote
‘Not’ votes exist in every presidential election and they always will. The 2016 election saw untold millions of Not-Hillary votes, while 2020 saw a substantial percentage of Not-Trump votes. A Morning Consult poll found that 44 percent of Biden voters cast their votes against Trump — rather than for Biden.
The question that will be answered in 2024 — again, presuming Biden and Trump are the nominees — is which guy will more benefit from (and which will more hurt by) “not” votes. Prognostications from keyboard jockeys across the fruited plain aside, that answer is presently unknowable or able to accurately be predicted.
The Bottom Line
Finally, a word about polls, in general. So you ever notice how many people have the propensity to laud poll results they like while dismissing out of hand the poll results they don’t? Me, too. I wonder why that is?
The last question is rhetorical.
